Category Archives: modelling

Overloaded A&Es – Have we got this all wrong? Dr Brad Keogh

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Dr Brad Keogh

Accident and Emergency wait times seem to be constantly in the news. Less commonly but equally importantly are headlines that waiting lists for elective operations and procedures are on the rise. Although these topics hit our headlines regularly there is actually very little evidence and understanding behind the reasons for these changes in NHS services, and how the NHS can take positive action to cope with these issues.

From what we understand a lot of the currently held beliefs around the causes for pressure on NHS services come from very basic, non peer-reviewed, and potentially flawed analyses. It does not need too much explaining that making decisions based on these might be a bad idea.

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OPINION: Tonight’s movie is a set in a dystopian future and stars your local A&E department. Dr Tom Monks

If you surf to a news website right now or flick on the TV news this evening, you might for a moment think that you watching a bad science fiction movie of a dystopian future starring your local A&E department. Sadly, it is real. The news has gone mad about A&E and the waiting time crisis that it faces. This morning the BBC reported that only 82% of patients are meeting the four-hour waiting time target. It doesn’t make pleasant reading.

Continue reading OPINION: Tonight’s movie is a set in a dystopian future and stars your local A&E department. Dr Tom Monks

Location, location, location – The social factors making a difference to kidney health.

Many of us don’t fully understand what our kidneys are for or how they work, but they are important to all of us. A team of us a CLAHRC Wessex have been conducting a big research project to find out more about something called ‘Acute kidney injury’, which is when the kidney suddenly stops working properly. This can make people very ill by causing a build-up of waste products in the blood and upsetting the balance of fluids in the body. As a result, people with acute kidney injury can have longer hospital stays and can experience serious consequences, such as needing dialysis or even dying.

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Using Health Systems Analytics to help the NHS improve the quality and equity of services -Dr Marion Penn, Dr Rudabeh Meskarian and Dr Thomas Monks

In Hampshire, Solent NHS Trust and Commissioners are making use of advanced Health Systems Analytics to visualise their demand, and support their decisions about the how many sexual health clinics should be funded to meet future patient need.

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Maths without equations: Dr Tom Monks insights into patient flow from queuing theory

Previously I have written about using a detailed computer model to ask ‘what-if’ an emergency department could be run differently.   Hidden away in complex models like these are important rules of thumb that tell us how to efficiently manage patient flow.

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I want to go home: Can modelling the whole health care system reduce the number of patients waiting to leave hospital?

Dr Tom Monks puzzles the opportunities and pitfalls of modelling large parts of the health care system and how this might help patients waiting to leave hospital.

I work as a modeller for CLAHRC Wessex. In part that means I spend a lot of time speaking to health care professionals and commissioners about their priorities and teasing out if modelling could help.  More and more often I am asked “can we model the whole health care system?”.

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APPLIED HEALTH RESEARCH – GET A GRiP – Professor Anne Rogers Research Director of the NIHR CLAHRC Wessex

In the many discussions I’ve had people about our newly established and growing CLAHRC programme of research and implementation, it often centres on the question of what is Applied Health Research? Is it different from more conventional bio-medical research?  It made me think that we need to be a bit more explicit about this thing called Applied Research. So here goes.

Continue reading APPLIED HEALTH RESEARCH – GET A GRiP – Professor Anne Rogers Research Director of the NIHR CLAHRC Wessex