If you surf to a news website right now or flick on the TV news this evening, you might for a moment think that you watching a bad science fiction movie of a dystopian future starring your local A&E department. Sadly, it is real. The news has gone mad about A&E and the waiting time crisis that it faces. This morning the BBC reported that only 82% of patients are meeting the four-hour waiting time target. It doesn’t make pleasant reading.
In Hampshire, Solent NHS Trust and Commissioners are making use of advanced Health Systems Analytics to visualise their demand, and support their decisions about the how many sexual health clinics should be funded to meet future patient need.
Previously I have written about using a detailed computer model to ask ‘what-if’ an emergency department could be run differently. Hidden away in complex models like these are important rules of thumb that tell us how to efficiently manage patient flow.
Dr Tom Monks puzzles the opportunities and pitfalls of modelling large parts of the health care system and how this might help patients waiting to leave hospital.
I work as a modeller for CLAHRC Wessex. In part that means I spend a lot of time speaking to health care professionals and commissioners about their priorities and teasing out if modelling could help. More and more often I am asked “can we model the whole health care system?”.